According to Canalys analysts, we will see a flat sales trend in 2021 and recovery can only be seen starting from 2022. For smartphones, even more, negative numbers are expected
The global recession triggered by the pandemic will weigh heavily on the world market for personal computers and tablets, which will close 2020 with deliveries down 7%, from 395.6 million in 2019 to 367.8 million this year. This is the prediction of the analysts of Canalys, according to which the trend will be flat in 2021 and then record a growth of 2% in 2022.
Although the PC market – where researchers also include tablets – has been shocked by the impact of Covid-19, the worst seems to be behind us now. For experts, in fact, the decreases that will occur in the second, third and fourth quarters will be less than that, more marked, seen in the first quarter. Two main factors contribute to easing the drop: the recovery of the production and supply chain in China, and the demand for devices – especially notebooks – for teleworking and distance learning. Despite the demand for laptops for school and work, analysts continue, the recessive impact of coronavirus on global economies will not be small. for this “consumers, businesses and governments will give priority to vital expenses, before thinking about
But the biggest danger for the consumer electronics market comes from the world of smartphones. After an extremely negative figure for the first three months of 2020, a minus 20% dry (source Gartner who underlines that it is the most serious contraction of all time), the second quarter of this year is characterized by a further contraction mobile phone sales, especially in the EMEA area.
In the first quarter of 2020, the five largest global smartphone manufacturers recorded a drop in sales, with the only exception being Xiaomi. Samsung and Huawei maintain the first two positions: Samsung continues to remain the first producer on a global level with a share of 18.5% of the total; Huawei follows with 14.2%.
What about Apple? It ranks third, approaching Huawei with a value of 13.7%. Xiaomi is the only one that, again in the first quarter of 2020, managed to record a positive figure, just + 1.4% which, however, allowed it to overcome Oppo, which instead undergoes a contraction of 19.1%, placing itself at fifth place. For all the other producers the share is 36.3%, with a drop in sales of 24.2% compared to the corresponding period of 2019.
But, as mentioned, the data of the second quarter of 2020 are very concerned, released by Idc which they speak of a total sale of 63 million terminals, for a value of 19 billion dollars. A collapse so marked as to be the worst in the last 5 years and which would be even more devastating than in 2009, during the financial crisis, which recorded a drop of 13%.
The slump in smartphone sales affects countries such as Spain and the southern European states in general. On the Iberian peninsula, the descent was almost a third compared to the same period of 2019. Following Russia, Italy and France, although the latter two to a lesser extent than Spain.
But what is most worrying is not the collapse – partly taken for granted – of smartphone sales during the toughest period of the lockdown, but that this scenario does not seem destined to undergo changes for the third quarter of this year, despite the pressures that come from the placing on the market of new generation mobile phones and with the support of 5G.
According to Idc, however, a glimmer of light could occur – except for the resurgence of the pandemic from COVID 19) already in the fourth quarter of 2020 and, certainly in the following years. In fact, the analysis agency predicts an average growth rate for smartphones of almost 5% per year from 2021 to 2024. 317 million mobile phones will be purchased at the end of 2020 and throughout the next year, to reach over 382 millions of pieces in 2024, with market shares between devices with the Android operating system and those with iOS that will tend to remain unchanged respectively at around 86% and 14%.